Certainly on a great roll right now, going 7-2 last week and 12-3 over the last two weeks. All plays are now hitting at 59% and that comes on the heels of last years 57% success rate (65-49), including winning 66% over the last 10 weeks of the season last year (regular season and playoffs). Totals continue to do well, going 10-6 this year after going 11-4 last year and are now 21-10 over the last 1+ years. Top plays (3%+) are now 7-2 this year. Having said that, be aware I am not going to continue to win 80% of my games (12-3 last two weeks) and may not win 59% of my games the rest of the year. My goal each year is 55%. A good year is 57%-60% and a great year would be 62% or so. The chances of meeting my goal (55%) each year is quite likely, using the methodology I use. The chances of having a good year (57%-59%) are a little less and the chances of having a great year are much less. Keep things in perspective and respect your bankroll. Hopefully I'll remain red hot but that might be asking a little too much.
All side opinions went 8-8 last week and are now 83-70-5 54% over the first eleven weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
Indianapolis -3 BUFFALO 37.5
The Buffalo offense has hit rock bottom, or at least I hope it has, meaning I hope it can only get better from here. Buffalo has now gone three straight games without scoring a touchdown. Listening to a Buffalo radio station this week and their advertisement for a restaurant in Buffalo that gives special drink and food items whenever Buffalo scores a touchdown, was kind of funny. The people at the radio station could barely get the advertisement out without laughing. Lost in all of this are two things. Buffalo is actually running the ball very well right now and their defense continues to play great ball. It's the Bills passing game, which has been non-existent the past three weeks. But it's that running game and the defense, that might lead them to a win this weekend. The Bills, who had only one 100 yard rushing game in their first six games, have now had four straight 100+ yard rushing games, including three out of four with at least 133 yards rushing. Their pass defense, which allowed 211 yards last week to Houston, of which 46 came on a touchdown because of a broken tackle, has only allowed one other team this year to throw for more than 199 yards and only one other team to throw for more than 170 yards. Since their third game of the season, Indianapolis has now allowed at least 131 yards rushing in seven of their last eight games. Over their last five games, Buffalo is allowing 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl, being above average against both, the run and the pass. Indy continues to not be able to run the ball, averaging 3.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games, but they are throwing the ball for 8.1 yps against 6.4 yps. Last weeks game against the Jets was a bit misleading, in terms of Indy gaining 538 yards, but at only 7.0 yppl (which was very good) but they allowed 9.5 yppl to the Jets! Buffalo ran for 6.5 ypr last week and out averaged the Texans 5.8 yppl to 4.7 yppl. The Indy defense is allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games. While Buffalo is only averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games, they are running the ball much better and will be able to succeed here against a very porous Indy rush defense. With their loss last week, Buffalo qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 71-41-1. Buffalo also qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in another contrary situation, which is 273-177-19 and 8-2 this year. That situation, basically, says teams under .500 ats for the season cover against teams above .500 ats for the season. There's more to it than that but that is the basics. Aside from the technical situations, Buffalo also qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 112-54-6 (5-2 TY) and 521-401-31 (32-21-2 TY), including a subset, which is 240-138-12 (12-7-1 TY). Indy also qualifies in two different situations, which play against them, which are 72-38-3 (3-1 TY) and 97-52-3. Final numbers indicate Indy should be a 4.5 point favorite (all games) and 5 point favorite (last five games), before accounting for the great situations Buffalo is in this week. I have situations favoring both the over and the under here so I will lean with my numbers, which suggest an over. BUFFALO 24 INDIANAPOLIS 21
NY JETS -4 Jacksonville 42
Jets lost last week in a competitive game at Indy, but a closer look reveals they may have out played Indy. Jets lost the yardage battle, 324-538, but won the yards per play battle, 9.5-7.0! They ran for 7.8 ypr by gaining 132 yards on just 17 carries and passed for another 11.3 yps. Meanwhile, Jacksonville was doing what they do best, and that is out yard their opponent's by both, yards and yards per play, but still lose the game. They out gained Tennessee 271-246 and 4.4-4.1 yards per play. The Jacksonville defense remains very underrated, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.8 yps. Their offense has come back to just an average offense, now gaining just 3.8 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 6.2 yps against 6.1 yps. Still, I like Bryon Leftwich an awful lot if he can just avoid the turnovers. For the Jets, their defense has been pretty average over the last five games, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.9 yps against 5.8 yps. The running game, which was so non-existent last year and early this year, is at least now average, gaining 4.4 ypr against 4.4 ypr. The passing game continues to shine, gaining 6.6 yps against 5.7 yps. A couple of things stand out here. With the exception of their game against Buffalo, the Jets have now allowed at least 115 yards rushing in every game this year, and with the exception of that 115 yard game, at least 145 yards in every game. On offense, as mentioned, they are starting to run the ball with authority and have gained at least 118 yards in each of their last six games after failing to gain more than 66 yards in each of their first four games. The Jets poor defensive effort last week doesn't bode well for them here, and they qualify in a negative situation, which is a 68-28-4 play against them here. And it also qualifies them in another negative situation, which is a 170-99-10, including the best subset, which is 70-25-2 and plays against the Jets here. Meanwhile, Jacksonville qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 293-212-11 and another, which is 107-40-5. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32. And, last but not least, they qualify in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 521-401-31 (32-21-2 TY), including a subset, which is 240-138-12 (12-7-1 TY) and a situation, which is 230-160-14. Other than the Jets 30-3 win over an injury depleted Bills team, they haven't won a game by more than five points this year. Meanwhile, take a look at Jacksonville's schedule this year. They have played at Carolina (lost by one), lost to Buffalo by 21 when Buffalo was playing so well, played Indianapolis twice, Tennessee twice, Baltimore and Miami. The only bad teams they have played (Buffalo wasn't bad when they played them), have been Houston (who they lost to by four on a last play touchdown by Houston) and San Diego, who they beat by six. Jacksonville has played an incredibly tough schedule and the Jets, while I respect them, are not in the class of that tough schedule. Jacksonville has the better defense, and a capable quarterback in the battle of Marshall quarterbacks. I like Jacksonville here. JACKSONVILLE 24 NY JETS 21
BALTIMORE -3 Seattle 36.5
A little home/road dichotomy in this game and the only thing that might balance it out is Anthony Wright starting at quarterback for Baltimore. Baltimore came up short last week but had their chances against Miami and probably deserved to win that game, but a solid effort by the Dolphins on defense, and a few costly turnovers did them in. Seattle dominated their game against Detroit from start to finish and let their 35-14 lead at halftime stand and coasted to a win in a scoreless second half. Baltimore's offense has gotten a little worse over the last five games (from a rushing standpoint) and they are no longer running the ball quite as well as before, gaining just 4.2 ypr against 3.9 ypr over the last five games, which is obviously down from their season long average of 4.9 ypr against 4.0 ypr. But, while they are still below average throwing the ball, gaining just 5.4 yps against 6.1 yps over their last five games, that is an improvement over their season long average of just 4.4 yps against 6.0 yps. So, they are getting more balanced, which is probably a good thing. And their defense is starting to play closer and closer to some of their better defenses of the past, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 4.8 yps against 6.0 yps. For Seattle, the offense is really starting to play well now, averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.6 yps against 6.3 yps. The defense is starting to fall back to levels closer to last year, now allowing 4.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.6 yps against 5.5 yps. Seattle's numbers may look a little better than they are because they have played six of their ten games at home. When they have taken to the road, it's been another story for them. Throw out their game at Arizona, where Arizona turned the ball over six times and lost their starting quarterback early in the game, and it hasn't been a pretty picture on the road for Seattle. Seattle has allowed a 100 yard rusher in six of their ten games but three of their four games on the road, including their three worse performances. They allowed GB to rush for 159 yards, Cincinnati to rush for 180 yards and lowly Washington to rush for 137 yards. They also allowed each of those three teams to throw for at least 6.8 yps. And, Seattle has lost the three games on the road they have played after the Arizona game, by 32, 3 and 7 points. In those last three road games, they have also turned the ball over ten times to only two for their opponents, which means against good competition on the road, their defense has not played well. And, they are turning the ball over against average to good defenses. That doesn't bode well for them in Baltimore. Seattle has moved the ball through the air this year, whether at home or on the road, but that assignment will be more difficult against a Baltimore pass defense, which has not allowed more than 186 yards passing at home this year. They have allowed just 83 yards (Cleveland), 113 yards (Kansas City), 90 yards (Denver) and 186 yards (Jacksonville). Baltimore qualifies as a turnover table play this week and that situation is now 769-597-32 and they qualify in a subset, which is 139-78-4. They also qualify in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 75-32-3 (5-3 TY) and 135-54-7 (7-4 TY). Final numbers suggest a pick 'em game (all games) and favor Baltimore by 1.5 (last five games) but they don't account for the home/road dichotomy and they don't account for the great situations Baltimore qualifies in. This game, while it doesn't qualify in any over/under situations, could end up being higher scoring than 'they' think. BALTIMORE 31 SEATTLE 13
PHILADELPHIA -5.5 New Orleans 39.5
Philly dominated the Giants last week, in route to their 28-10 win. They averaged 7.4 yppl against only 5.1 yppl for the Giants. Much like Baltimore, Philly's rushing offense has taken a step back as of late, but their passing game, while still below average, has gotten much better over their last five games. They are now averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.4 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. They should be able to run on a New Orleans defense that is allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. The Saints have played good pass defense, allowing just 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. For New Orleans, their rushing offense has been very steady this year and they are gaining 4.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games. The passing offense has been a bit below average, gaining just 6.1 yps against 6.5 yps. NO has rushed for at least 103 yards in every game but one this year. Philly, after not allowing a team to rush for more than 90 yards in their first four games (no more than 62 in three of those four), has now allowed at least 109 yards in each of their last six games and 4.7 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games. Saints haven't been much better, allowing at least 100 yards rushing in all but two of their games. I have no situations that favor either team here and the numbers suggest Philly by four (all games) and by 1.5 (last five games) and I'll lean towards NO based on that. PHILADELPHIA 21 NEW ORLEANS 20
CLEVELAND -3 Pittsburgh 40.5
This is the first of two games that qualified as best bets this week, but in trying to not take too many games, one, which I left off the card. The biggest reason I left the game off the card is because Pittsburgh, despite the situations favoring them, is just not playing very well. I look at four different stats - rushing and passing offense and rushing and passing defense. Not only is Pittsburgh failing in three of those four, but they are failing badly. The Steelers are averaging just 3.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 5.1 yps against 5.9 yps. On defense, the rush defense has been good, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr but they are allowing a whopping 6.9 yps against 6.0 yps. At least last year, when they still couldn't run the ball, they were throwing the ball well, but that's not the case this year. Now, Cleveland doesn't have much to offer either, but at least they have some identity. The Browns have been average rushing the ball in their last five games, gaining 4.1 ypr against 4.1 ypr and well below average throwing the ball, gaining just 4.8 yps against 6.0 yps and that includes their performance against Arizona last week, which saw them throw for 11.2 yps. On defense, the Browns are allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr but playing better pass defense, allowing just 5.8 yps against 6.0 yps over their last five games. Pittsburgh has never lost by more than three points in Cleveland since this franchise came back in 1999. Cleveland does qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 108-65-11 but they don't qualify in the better subset, which is 68-22-6, making the situation just 40-43-5 without the subset. Pittsburgh qualifies in two different contrary situations, which are 293-212-11 and the turnover table system, which is 769-597-32. Final numbers ( before the situations are accounted for) do support Cleveland by 8.5 (all games) and 9 (last five games), which is one of the reasons I left Pittsburgh off the card despite qualifying as a play this week. PITTSBURGH 20 CLEVELAND 17
GREEN BAY -4.5 San Francisco 42.5
If there is one team Green Bay has had the number on for eight years now, it is the 49ers. Maybe that will change because the 49ers offense is a little different from the previous years, with Dennis Erickson now in charge, but I doubt it will change much. It all started back in 1995 when Green Bay went to SF as a 10 point dog in the playoffs and played the most physical game I have ever seen them play. They left as 10 point winners in a game they were never threatened in. Since then, they have played SF nine times, winning eight of those games. They have played each year, sometimes twice. The only SF win was the Owens catch in the 1998 playoffs on the last play of the game, to win by three points. It doesn't matter if it's in Green Bay or San Francisco, playoffs, or the NFC Championship game in SF, the Packers have dominated this series. Since 1991, SF is just 18-31-2 on the road when playing a team at or above. 500,which includes just 11-28 if SF is off a win. They are just 5-21-1 if SF played at home in their previous game and their opponent was on the road. And that includes some of SF better years, with a SB in 1994. They just haven't been a good team on the road when playing good competition. They have made a living on the road beating inferior teams. Not much has changed this year, with SF, although competitive, going 0-4 SU on the road. The SF offense has come on as of late, averaging 4.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.9 yps. But their defense, over the last five games, has given some of that back, allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.0 yps against 5.9 yps. In their last three road games, they have allowed 102, 147 and 221 rushing yards. That doesn't bode well against a Green Bay team who is running the ball better than any other team in the league right now, averaging 5.8 ypr against 4.7 ypr over their last five games. The Packers have gone to more of the run to protect Favre, and they are now averaging just 6.2 yps against 6.7 yps over their last five games. They have rushed for at least 190 yards in each of their last three games, and at least 184 yards in six of their ten games this year. The Green Bay defense, like SF, has given some of that back, allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games but the pass defense has played better, allowing just 6.3 yps against 6.8 yps. They allowed TB to rush for 154 yards at 8.6 ypr last week but that was somewhat misleading as two rushes accounted for about 110 yards and they only allowed about 2.0 ypr in TB other 16 rushes. The Pack qualify in a general momentum situation, which is 103-60-4 and if this line would drop to -4 or less, they would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 135-54-7 (7-4 TY). Final numbers actually favor SF but the home/road dichotomy and the situations make up for that. If Green Bay becomes a favorite of four or less, I would make them a best bet. GREEN BAY 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20
MINNESOTA -10.5 Detroit 47.5
Maybe after Minnesota allows at least 28 points in about nine straight games, the linemaker will begin to make their lines fair. Minnesota had a chance last week against an Oakland team who had no identity on offense to really take advantage of the porous Minnesota defense. That didn't work as Oakland rushed for their most yards this year, 191 and gained their second most total yards, 375, and second most points, 28, in a game this year. They better get the job done this week because with games at St. Louis, at home versus Seattle and Kansas City and at Chicago and Arizona, this might be their last chance to win a game. Those other teams all do something well, that could spell trouble for the Vikings. Yes, Chicago actually plays pretty solid defense and Arizona can rush the ball (who can't against this defense) and plays well at home. The other three teams speak for themselves. Minnesota has now allowed at least 20 points in six straight games and at least 26 points in five of six games. That doesn't bode well when you are laying 10.5 points. Can Minnesota score 30+ points? Sure, but they have only scored more than 30 points twice this year. And only two of their six wins have come by more than 11 points this year. Once again, they'll face a team that doesn't do anything special on offense. The Lions have been terrible on offense this year, averaging just 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 4.6 yps against 5.2 yps. But, where they fail, so does Minnesota. The Vikings are allowing 5.7 ypr against 4.8 ypr and 7.0 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games. We've heard all the stories about Minnesota had to play some great backs in Tiki Barber, Ahman Green and Clinton Portis and Tomlinson. They didn't face one last week and still allowed Wheatley and company to rush for 191 yards. They played good teams and that was why they were losing. They haven't played a good team in each of the last two weeks and still lost the games badly. They were undervalued last year because they were turning the ball over so much and were getting a lot of points in games. This year, their defense wasn't playing that well, even in the beginning, but they were getting the turnovers. All of a sudden that has stopped for the last four games and they have lost all of them badly. Will they get the turnovers this week? They could against Detroit, but teams have figured out they can run the ball on this team, and that limits their chances of turning the ball over. Even as hapless as Detroit's offense has been, when comparing their numbers to Minnesota's numbers, they still figure to average about 4.5 ypr and 6.8 yps. Would you want to lay 10.5 points, knowing your opponent is probably going to average those numbers? And, what Oakland didn't have going for them last week, Detroit does this week, and that's a decent defense. Their defense is allowing just 3.3 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.6 yps against 5.5 yps. For Minnesota, the one area that has continued to perform well is the passing game, which is averaging 7.4 yps against 5.3 yps, while the running game has been just above average, gaining 4.4 ypr against 4.2 ypr. Mike Tice has said this week they need to establish the run, which will allow them to pass and keep their defense off the field, where it belongs. But, Detroit is playing good rush defense, and may be able to limit the gains Minnesota can get. Over the last 10 years playing Detroit at home, Minnesota has only won one game by more than 10 points, and that was the 15-1 team in 1998. This isn't a version of that 15-1 team and I don't see them winning this game by more than 10 points with this defense. Detroit qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 293-212-11 and they are a turnover table play as well, which is 769-597-32. Final numbers, before accounting for the situations Detroit qualifies in, suggest Minnesota by 10.5 (all games) and by 8.5 (last five games). I'll always gladly take my chances getting 10+ points, when facing a defense like Minnesota. MINNESOTA 28 DETROIT 27
DALLAS -3 Carolina 32.5
I have no situations on either team in this game and I don't have a strong opinion either. It's very tough to see Dallas, with an offense that has really become somewhat anemic, laying points against a good team like Carolina, who is in just about every game. Having said that, the Dallas offense might play better this week on the carpet, where they can take advantage of their speed. The Cowboys have really only played three good defenses this year and they haven't performed well against them, scoring 0 points at Tampa Bay, 10 points against Buffalo, and 0 points again last week against New England. Carolina is obviously known as a running team but they are averaging just 4.3 ypr against 4.2 ypr for the whole season, and just 4.4 ypr against 4.6 ypr over their last five games. But, they are starting to throw the ball extremely well right now, averaging 6.9 yps against 6.3 yps over their last five games. Dallas has been just average defending the run, allowing 3.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr but excellent defending the pass, allowing just 3.4 yps against 5.1 yps. Until allowing NE to throw for 203 yards last week, Dallas hadn't allowed a team to throw for more than 133 yards in any of their previous six games. And since their first game, they haven't allowed a team to throw for more than 124 yards at home this year. Numbers favor Dallas by four points (all games) and by 5.5 points (last five games), but I am going to lean the other way in this game and take the points in what should be a low scoring game. DALLAS 17 CAROLINA 16
New England -6 HOUSTON 37
No question NE is playing great football right now. They are playing great defense, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl and just 14 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game over their last five games. The offense hasn't been terrific but their passing game has been, averaging 7.2 yps against 5.7 yps over their last five games. That could spell trouble against a Houston defense, which is allowing 4.6 ypr against 3.9 ypr and a whopping 8.2 yps against 7.0 yps over their last five games. The Houston offense has been solid, gaining 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.3 yps over their last five games. While they have played some teams that are better than this Houston team, NE hasn't been blowing teams away on the road. They lost their opener at Buffalo, in a game we can probably just throw out because of the Lawyer Milloy stuff, and then bounced back against Philly, winning 31-10. Since then, they have lost by three at Washington, won in OT at Miami by six, and won in the last seconds at Denver by four, against a Bronco team without Jake Plummer. For Houston, they lost badly early in the year at home to Kansas City by 28, but since then have defeated Jacksonville by four, lost by five against the Jets and defeated Carolina by four. So, they have been competitive at home. Houston qualifies in two similar momentum situations, which are 76-42-2 and 155-105-11 (3-0 TY). NE qualifies in a scheduling situation, which plays against them here. That situation is 97-52-3. Final numbers favor NE by 5.5 (all games) and 3.5 (last five games). I like the home dog to have a chance of staying within a generous amount of points. Houston has rushed for at least 107 yards in each of their four home games this year. NE has allowed at least 97 yards rushing in each road game this year and three of their four 100 yard rushing games allowed have come on the road. NEW ENGLAND 21 HOUSTON 20
DENVER -10.5 Chicago 40.5
Second game of the week that I scratched from the card, although it qualified as a play this week. It's hard to completely trust the numbers with Denver because so many of those games came without Jake Plummer at quarterback. Having said that, the numbers for all games favor Denver by about 14 and for just the last five games, favor them by about five points. The general perception is Chicago is a really bad team and they aren't necessarily a good team, but their defense has played well lately. They are allowing just 3.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 5.2 yps against 5.5 yps. They are also allowing just 17 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game over their last five games. They'll go against a Denver offense, which is gaining 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr but just 4.9 yps against 5.9 yps. But, like I said, it's tough to get a read on those numbers because Plummer has been hurt. Last week with Plummer, they averaged 6.9 yps against a San Diego pass defense that has allowed 6.4 yps over their last five games and 6.6 yps for the season. So, I would say the Denver passing game is back to above average. Throw out the first game, which was a debacle against SF, and the Bears haven't lost a game by more than 15 points this year. And since Chandler became quarterback, they haven't lost by more than seven points and that includes traveling to Seattle as 11 point dogs (lost by seven) and to New Orleans as 6.5 point dogs (lost by seven). The Bears qualify in a contrary situation, which is 293-212-11 and they qualify in another situation, which is 106-52-2 (4-0 TY). I won't play Chicago here because I think it will be tough for them to move the ball on offense against a good Denver defense (Bears average just 3.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps) but they do qualify as a best bet and are the right side. DENVER 21 CHICAGO 17
St. Louis -8 ARIZONA 43
After going against the Rams for four straight games earlier this year and failing to win any of them, I have now gone against them in two of their last three games and won both of them. I'll continue to attack what I think is a slightly overrated team. It's beginning to get harder and harder to justify Arizona as they continue to slide back into the Arizona team we all know and love, but my last defense for them this week is they play better at home. Rams continue to not be able to rush the ball, averaging just 3.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr but they are throwing the ball extremely well, averaging 7.1 yps against 6.3 yps over their last five games. The defense has played respectable during that time, allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.5 ypr and 5.6 yps against 5.6 yps. For Arizona, their saving grace is their rushing game, which is averaging 4.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr. The passing game has gone south, averaging just 5.0 yps against 5.6 yps. On defense, they are allowing just 3.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr but are now allowing 6.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Since Marcel Shipp took over at running back, the team has gained 221 and 161 yards rushing in their last two home games. They lost their first game at home to Seattle, but lost Blake early in that game and turned the ball over six times. But, since then, they have defeated GB (who was banged up) by seven points, lost to Baltimore by eight (although trailed by much more) beat SF by three and Cincinnati by three. In that Baltimore game, they actually gained 320 yards to just a little over 300 for Baltimore but allowed an interception return for a touchdown and a punt return for a touchdown. Only once have the Rams averaged more than 3.1 ypr on the road this year and that was last week with Marshall Faulk, when they averaged 4.5 ypr. The defense is allowing 4.7 ypr on the road this year. The Rams have also had protection problems the last two weeks. That can be excused against a Baltimore defense, where they allowed five sacks, but not against the Bears defense, where they allowed four sacks. The Bears only had 8 sacks coming into that game. Arizona also only has eight sacks on the year so we'll see if playing on the road affects their ability to protect Mark Bulger. Arizona is averaging 4.1 ypr at home this year but has averaged 4.5, 5.0 and 4.4 ypr in their last three home games. They've also allowed only one team (Baltimore) to rush for more than 4.3 ypr and only Seattle and Baltimore to rush for more than 3.9 ypr at home. The Rams have won just one game by more than two points on the road this year. Going back to the 2000 season, the Rams are now just 3-12-1 when facing an opponent on the road who has a win percentage of .500 or below and just 1-10-1 when they have a winning percentage of less than .857. It's very hard to trust them laying points on the road. Arizona qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 39-16-0, which plays on teams who allowed 40 or more points in their last game. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in a contrary situation, which is 273-177-19. That situation is 8-2 this year and the premise of the situation is to play on teams who are not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread. Teams don't just keep on covering and not covering. Vegas wouldn't be quite as bright as it is if that was the case. Arizona also qualifies in two fundamental rushing situations, which are 112-54-6 (5-2 TY) and a situation, which is 521-401-31 (32-21-2 TY) and a subset, which is 240-138-12 (12-7-1 TY). Final numbers suggest Rams by 6.5 (all games) and by five points (last five games) before accounting for the situations Arizona qualifies in. This game also qualifies in two terrific under situations, which are 145-71-2 (6-1 TY) and 299-221-11 (13-5 TY). Arizona has played it close to the vest this year at home and their games have accounted for just 38, 33, 44, 29 and 31 points. Last year, these two combined for 58 points at St. Louis (50 this year at St. Louis) but just 41 points here. And Arizona only had one game last year at home that combined to total more than 43 points. The situations favoring the under are too strong and too hot this year to ignore. ST LOUIS 21 ARIZONA 17
Tennessee -7.5 ATLANTA 44
Here is another team (Tennessee) I have gone against five straight times and only covered one once. I finally got off that ship last week and they didn't cover. I'm getting back on that ship this week and we'll see what happens. It's hard to make a great case for Atlanta, from a fundamental standpoint. After all, Atlanta is allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 8.1 yps against 6.4 yps over their last five games. And now they'll face a Tennessee offense that is averaging just 3.2 ypr against 3.7 ypr but an unbelievable 9.0 yps against 6.5 yps over their last five games. Dan Reeves replaced his entire secondary two weeks ago and it may be paying some dividends. That, or Atlanta has decided to let teams run on them but not throw the ball. Atlanta has allowed the Giants to throw for just 4.2 yps (they average 5.8 yps for the whole season) and NO to throw for just 4.3 yps (they average 5.7 yps for the whole season). Atlanta has allowed those teams to average 6.1 ypr in those two games but I like that philosophy better, especially against a pass happy Tennessee team. While Atlanta has stopped the opposing team's passing game, they haven't thrown the ball any better themselves and will go back to Doug Johnson this week. But, Atlanta is rushing the ball well, averaging 5.9 ypr over their last two games and 5.3 ypr against 4.7 ypr over their last five games. That might fit very well against a Tennessee rush defense, which is allowing 4.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. I know nobody wants a bad team at home against a good team but home teams with a winning percentage of .200 or worse are 56-21-1 when getting more than five points and facing a team with a winning record. There's a little more to that but that is the basic premise. Atlanta is a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32. I've also talked about taking teams who are not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread and that situation is 273-177-19 and 8-2 already this year. Final numbers suggest Tennessee by 4.5 (all games) and by 9.5 (last five games) before accounting for the situations Atlanta qualifies in. I don't think Atlanta can cover this game by just running the ball and they will have to score some to stay in this game. I also like the game to go over the total. Tennessee only scored 10 points last week but had scored at least 30 points in six straight games and at least 27 points in seven straight games prior to last week's game. They've also allowed at least 13 points in every road game this year and at least 17 points in all but one road game. If they get to 27 or 30 and allow their customary 17 points, this game stands a good chance of going over the total. Other than their game at home against TB, Atlanta has scored at least 16 points in every home game and since relying more on the rush the last two weeks, they have scored at least 20 points, both coming on the road. Other than two games this year, their defense has also allowed at least 23 points in every game. This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 35-11-1. Final predicted points suggest somewhere around 49 points (all games) and 54 points (last five games). I like Atlanta and the over. TENNESSEE 32 ATLANTA 29
KANSAS CITY -11.5 Oakland 45.5
I have no situations that apply to either team here and I don't have much of an opinion on this game either. The Kansas City offense has been good, averaging 6.0 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games (7.4 yps against 5.9 yps), while the Oakland defense hasn't been good, allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl (6.2 yps against 5.7 yps) over their last five games. The Oakland offense has been below average, gaining just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl, while the Kansas City defense has also been below average, allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl. I still think it will be tough for Rick Mirer to operate in the tough Kansas City environment. A few years ago, teams playing after they had played TB didn't do too well because of the physical match-up they had the previous week with TB, etc. Maybe we are starting to see something new here. Teams who beat Minnesota are now 0-2-1 this year in their next game. Perhaps teams start feeling good about themselves after having such an explosive offensive outing that they lose track of the fact they may not be quite as good as they looked the previous week. Doug Flutie and San Diego looked great two weeks ago and terrible last week. And, perhaps, their opponents don't take them lightly either, after their impressive showing. Whatever the case, I think Oakland will have all they can handle this week against a Kansas City team that can play a little loser now that they have finally lost. This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 299-221-11 (13-5 TY). KANSAS CITY 27 OAKLAND 14
Cincinnati -3 SAN DIEGO 43
Here is a case of a team looking so good that we all forget they are still an average team. A much improved team and a team finally starting to put it all together, but I'm not ready to make Cincinnati the next contender in the AFC. I took SD two weeks ago against a bad Minnesota team and many people didn't want any part of it. Well, I can't suggest Cincinnati is worse than Minnesota but I like the spot here for SD. SD has still only played three home games this year, losing to Baltimore and Denver and beating the only average team they have played, Minnesota. Cincinnati, meanwhile, over the past six weeks, has played four home games, had a bye and played one road game at Arizona, in which they lost by three points. In their previous three road games, they won at Cleveland by seven points, lost at Oakland by three (we know how good Oakland is or isn't) and lost at Buffalo by six points. Throw out the Kansas City game (in KC), the two Denver games and the Miami game, and SD doesn't look so bad against average competition. They beat Cleveland on the road by six, lost to Oakland by three, lost to Jacksonville by six, lost to Chicago by 13 (on the road) and beat Minnesota by 14. They can certainly be competitive in this game. Doug Flutie isn't going to beat the great defensive teams but he can compete with the Cincinnati's of the world. Cincinnati is allowing 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. While SD isn't throwing the ball well, averaging just 5.0 yps against 6.0 yps, they are running the ball well, averaging 5.3 ypr against 3.9 ypr. Two weeks ago, they averaged 8.0 yps against an equally poor Minnesota pass defense. On offense, Cincinnati still isn't rushing the ball well, for average, gaining just 3.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games, but they are averaging 6.4 yps against 5.8 yps during that same time period. They'll face a SD defense that is allowing 6.4 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. Cincinnati qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 158-87-8 and plays against them here. SD is also a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in our non-covering against covering contrary situation, which is 273-177-19 (8-2 TY). SD also qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 422-295-23 (24-12-1 TY) and 112-54-6 (5-2 TY). Final numbers suggest a two point line (all games) and 2.5 point line (last five games), in favor of Cincinnati. While I don't have a situation on the over in this game, I also like the game to go over the total. SD has allowed at least 20 points in every game this year. Against the two teams SD has faced this year that are allowing more yards per play than their opponents are averaging and more points per game than their opponents are averaging (for the whole season), they have scored 31 points (Oakland) and 42 points (Minnesota). This week they get Cincinnati, who is allowing 22 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game and 5.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Cincinnati, against the same criteria, has averaged 23 points in three games this year. SD's defense, against the same criteria, has allowed an average of 28 points in two games. And, Cincinnati's defense against the same criteria has allowed an average of 22 points in two games. Both teams have below average pass defenses, and while SD doesn't throw the ball that well, their running game is good enough to pose a threat to Cincinnati to have to defend it, which will open up the passing lanes for SD too. Final numbers suggest about 48 points (all games) to 55 points (last five games), giving us good value to the over. SAN DIEGO 31 CINCINNATI 24
MIAMI -6.5 Washington 35
Washington qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 293-212-11 but I have a hard time recommending them here, not knowing if P. Ramsey will be the quarterback. If he isn't, it's going to be awful tough for Washington to move the ball. If he is, it's still going to be tough to move the ball. The Miami offense is below average, gaining just 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl, but they'll face a struggling Washington defense that is allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl. And Washington has been well below average against both, the run and the pass. The Miami defense, of course, is playing well, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl and they'll face a Washington offense that is averaging just 4.2 yppl against 4.6 yppl over their last five games. Final numbers suggest Miami by 9.5 points (all games) and by 9.0 points (last five games). It isn't often I will go against the situations, but I have a hard time recommending Washington here. MIAMI 24 WASHINGTON 14
TAMPA BAY -5.5 NY Giants 37
I don't have enough ammunition to make the Giants a best bet here but I will lean their way, despite the loss of Shockey. The Giants offense is just average, gaining just 5.2 yppl against 5.4 yppl over their last five games. That could get worse because of the loss of Shockey. But, they'll face a TB defense, which is allowing 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl and has been pretty average for a while now. On the other side of the ball, TB throws the ball well, averaging 6.0 yps against 5.5 yps (we'll see how the Keyshawn deactivation effects their passing game) but they'll face the strength of the Giants defense, which is the passing game. Their pass defense is allowing just 4.9 yps against 6.2 yps. Giants qualify as a turnover table play, while TB qualifies in a Monday night situation. Value lies with the Giants as final numbers suggest a 3.5 point line (all games) and a 4.5 point line (last five games). This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 48-23-4. Those final numbers suggest about 37 points (all games) and 33 points (last five games). I'll lean towards the Giants and the under. TAMPA BAY 17 NY GIANTS 14
BEST BETS
YTD 36-25-2 +22.80%
2% BUFFALO +3
2% JACKSONVILLE +4 (Must get at least 4)
2% BALTIMORE -3
2% DETROIT +10.5
2% HOUSTON +6
2% ARIZONA +8
2% ATLANTA +7
2% SAN DIEGO +3
2% STL/ARZ UNDER 43
2% TENN/ATL OVER 44
2% CIN/SD OVER 43
Possible Play:
2% GREEN BAY -4 or less
All side opinions went 8-8 last week and are now 83-70-5 54% over the first eleven weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
Indianapolis -3 BUFFALO 37.5
The Buffalo offense has hit rock bottom, or at least I hope it has, meaning I hope it can only get better from here. Buffalo has now gone three straight games without scoring a touchdown. Listening to a Buffalo radio station this week and their advertisement for a restaurant in Buffalo that gives special drink and food items whenever Buffalo scores a touchdown, was kind of funny. The people at the radio station could barely get the advertisement out without laughing. Lost in all of this are two things. Buffalo is actually running the ball very well right now and their defense continues to play great ball. It's the Bills passing game, which has been non-existent the past three weeks. But it's that running game and the defense, that might lead them to a win this weekend. The Bills, who had only one 100 yard rushing game in their first six games, have now had four straight 100+ yard rushing games, including three out of four with at least 133 yards rushing. Their pass defense, which allowed 211 yards last week to Houston, of which 46 came on a touchdown because of a broken tackle, has only allowed one other team this year to throw for more than 199 yards and only one other team to throw for more than 170 yards. Since their third game of the season, Indianapolis has now allowed at least 131 yards rushing in seven of their last eight games. Over their last five games, Buffalo is allowing 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl, being above average against both, the run and the pass. Indy continues to not be able to run the ball, averaging 3.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games, but they are throwing the ball for 8.1 yps against 6.4 yps. Last weeks game against the Jets was a bit misleading, in terms of Indy gaining 538 yards, but at only 7.0 yppl (which was very good) but they allowed 9.5 yppl to the Jets! Buffalo ran for 6.5 ypr last week and out averaged the Texans 5.8 yppl to 4.7 yppl. The Indy defense is allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games. While Buffalo is only averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games, they are running the ball much better and will be able to succeed here against a very porous Indy rush defense. With their loss last week, Buffalo qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 71-41-1. Buffalo also qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in another contrary situation, which is 273-177-19 and 8-2 this year. That situation, basically, says teams under .500 ats for the season cover against teams above .500 ats for the season. There's more to it than that but that is the basics. Aside from the technical situations, Buffalo also qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 112-54-6 (5-2 TY) and 521-401-31 (32-21-2 TY), including a subset, which is 240-138-12 (12-7-1 TY). Indy also qualifies in two different situations, which play against them, which are 72-38-3 (3-1 TY) and 97-52-3. Final numbers indicate Indy should be a 4.5 point favorite (all games) and 5 point favorite (last five games), before accounting for the great situations Buffalo is in this week. I have situations favoring both the over and the under here so I will lean with my numbers, which suggest an over. BUFFALO 24 INDIANAPOLIS 21
NY JETS -4 Jacksonville 42
Jets lost last week in a competitive game at Indy, but a closer look reveals they may have out played Indy. Jets lost the yardage battle, 324-538, but won the yards per play battle, 9.5-7.0! They ran for 7.8 ypr by gaining 132 yards on just 17 carries and passed for another 11.3 yps. Meanwhile, Jacksonville was doing what they do best, and that is out yard their opponent's by both, yards and yards per play, but still lose the game. They out gained Tennessee 271-246 and 4.4-4.1 yards per play. The Jacksonville defense remains very underrated, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.8 yps. Their offense has come back to just an average offense, now gaining just 3.8 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 6.2 yps against 6.1 yps. Still, I like Bryon Leftwich an awful lot if he can just avoid the turnovers. For the Jets, their defense has been pretty average over the last five games, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.9 yps against 5.8 yps. The running game, which was so non-existent last year and early this year, is at least now average, gaining 4.4 ypr against 4.4 ypr. The passing game continues to shine, gaining 6.6 yps against 5.7 yps. A couple of things stand out here. With the exception of their game against Buffalo, the Jets have now allowed at least 115 yards rushing in every game this year, and with the exception of that 115 yard game, at least 145 yards in every game. On offense, as mentioned, they are starting to run the ball with authority and have gained at least 118 yards in each of their last six games after failing to gain more than 66 yards in each of their first four games. The Jets poor defensive effort last week doesn't bode well for them here, and they qualify in a negative situation, which is a 68-28-4 play against them here. And it also qualifies them in another negative situation, which is a 170-99-10, including the best subset, which is 70-25-2 and plays against the Jets here. Meanwhile, Jacksonville qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 293-212-11 and another, which is 107-40-5. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32. And, last but not least, they qualify in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 521-401-31 (32-21-2 TY), including a subset, which is 240-138-12 (12-7-1 TY) and a situation, which is 230-160-14. Other than the Jets 30-3 win over an injury depleted Bills team, they haven't won a game by more than five points this year. Meanwhile, take a look at Jacksonville's schedule this year. They have played at Carolina (lost by one), lost to Buffalo by 21 when Buffalo was playing so well, played Indianapolis twice, Tennessee twice, Baltimore and Miami. The only bad teams they have played (Buffalo wasn't bad when they played them), have been Houston (who they lost to by four on a last play touchdown by Houston) and San Diego, who they beat by six. Jacksonville has played an incredibly tough schedule and the Jets, while I respect them, are not in the class of that tough schedule. Jacksonville has the better defense, and a capable quarterback in the battle of Marshall quarterbacks. I like Jacksonville here. JACKSONVILLE 24 NY JETS 21
BALTIMORE -3 Seattle 36.5
A little home/road dichotomy in this game and the only thing that might balance it out is Anthony Wright starting at quarterback for Baltimore. Baltimore came up short last week but had their chances against Miami and probably deserved to win that game, but a solid effort by the Dolphins on defense, and a few costly turnovers did them in. Seattle dominated their game against Detroit from start to finish and let their 35-14 lead at halftime stand and coasted to a win in a scoreless second half. Baltimore's offense has gotten a little worse over the last five games (from a rushing standpoint) and they are no longer running the ball quite as well as before, gaining just 4.2 ypr against 3.9 ypr over the last five games, which is obviously down from their season long average of 4.9 ypr against 4.0 ypr. But, while they are still below average throwing the ball, gaining just 5.4 yps against 6.1 yps over their last five games, that is an improvement over their season long average of just 4.4 yps against 6.0 yps. So, they are getting more balanced, which is probably a good thing. And their defense is starting to play closer and closer to some of their better defenses of the past, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 4.8 yps against 6.0 yps. For Seattle, the offense is really starting to play well now, averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.6 yps against 6.3 yps. The defense is starting to fall back to levels closer to last year, now allowing 4.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.6 yps against 5.5 yps. Seattle's numbers may look a little better than they are because they have played six of their ten games at home. When they have taken to the road, it's been another story for them. Throw out their game at Arizona, where Arizona turned the ball over six times and lost their starting quarterback early in the game, and it hasn't been a pretty picture on the road for Seattle. Seattle has allowed a 100 yard rusher in six of their ten games but three of their four games on the road, including their three worse performances. They allowed GB to rush for 159 yards, Cincinnati to rush for 180 yards and lowly Washington to rush for 137 yards. They also allowed each of those three teams to throw for at least 6.8 yps. And, Seattle has lost the three games on the road they have played after the Arizona game, by 32, 3 and 7 points. In those last three road games, they have also turned the ball over ten times to only two for their opponents, which means against good competition on the road, their defense has not played well. And, they are turning the ball over against average to good defenses. That doesn't bode well for them in Baltimore. Seattle has moved the ball through the air this year, whether at home or on the road, but that assignment will be more difficult against a Baltimore pass defense, which has not allowed more than 186 yards passing at home this year. They have allowed just 83 yards (Cleveland), 113 yards (Kansas City), 90 yards (Denver) and 186 yards (Jacksonville). Baltimore qualifies as a turnover table play this week and that situation is now 769-597-32 and they qualify in a subset, which is 139-78-4. They also qualify in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 75-32-3 (5-3 TY) and 135-54-7 (7-4 TY). Final numbers suggest a pick 'em game (all games) and favor Baltimore by 1.5 (last five games) but they don't account for the home/road dichotomy and they don't account for the great situations Baltimore qualifies in. This game, while it doesn't qualify in any over/under situations, could end up being higher scoring than 'they' think. BALTIMORE 31 SEATTLE 13
PHILADELPHIA -5.5 New Orleans 39.5
Philly dominated the Giants last week, in route to their 28-10 win. They averaged 7.4 yppl against only 5.1 yppl for the Giants. Much like Baltimore, Philly's rushing offense has taken a step back as of late, but their passing game, while still below average, has gotten much better over their last five games. They are now averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.4 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. They should be able to run on a New Orleans defense that is allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. The Saints have played good pass defense, allowing just 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. For New Orleans, their rushing offense has been very steady this year and they are gaining 4.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games. The passing offense has been a bit below average, gaining just 6.1 yps against 6.5 yps. NO has rushed for at least 103 yards in every game but one this year. Philly, after not allowing a team to rush for more than 90 yards in their first four games (no more than 62 in three of those four), has now allowed at least 109 yards in each of their last six games and 4.7 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games. Saints haven't been much better, allowing at least 100 yards rushing in all but two of their games. I have no situations that favor either team here and the numbers suggest Philly by four (all games) and by 1.5 (last five games) and I'll lean towards NO based on that. PHILADELPHIA 21 NEW ORLEANS 20
CLEVELAND -3 Pittsburgh 40.5
This is the first of two games that qualified as best bets this week, but in trying to not take too many games, one, which I left off the card. The biggest reason I left the game off the card is because Pittsburgh, despite the situations favoring them, is just not playing very well. I look at four different stats - rushing and passing offense and rushing and passing defense. Not only is Pittsburgh failing in three of those four, but they are failing badly. The Steelers are averaging just 3.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 5.1 yps against 5.9 yps. On defense, the rush defense has been good, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr but they are allowing a whopping 6.9 yps against 6.0 yps. At least last year, when they still couldn't run the ball, they were throwing the ball well, but that's not the case this year. Now, Cleveland doesn't have much to offer either, but at least they have some identity. The Browns have been average rushing the ball in their last five games, gaining 4.1 ypr against 4.1 ypr and well below average throwing the ball, gaining just 4.8 yps against 6.0 yps and that includes their performance against Arizona last week, which saw them throw for 11.2 yps. On defense, the Browns are allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr but playing better pass defense, allowing just 5.8 yps against 6.0 yps over their last five games. Pittsburgh has never lost by more than three points in Cleveland since this franchise came back in 1999. Cleveland does qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 108-65-11 but they don't qualify in the better subset, which is 68-22-6, making the situation just 40-43-5 without the subset. Pittsburgh qualifies in two different contrary situations, which are 293-212-11 and the turnover table system, which is 769-597-32. Final numbers ( before the situations are accounted for) do support Cleveland by 8.5 (all games) and 9 (last five games), which is one of the reasons I left Pittsburgh off the card despite qualifying as a play this week. PITTSBURGH 20 CLEVELAND 17
GREEN BAY -4.5 San Francisco 42.5
If there is one team Green Bay has had the number on for eight years now, it is the 49ers. Maybe that will change because the 49ers offense is a little different from the previous years, with Dennis Erickson now in charge, but I doubt it will change much. It all started back in 1995 when Green Bay went to SF as a 10 point dog in the playoffs and played the most physical game I have ever seen them play. They left as 10 point winners in a game they were never threatened in. Since then, they have played SF nine times, winning eight of those games. They have played each year, sometimes twice. The only SF win was the Owens catch in the 1998 playoffs on the last play of the game, to win by three points. It doesn't matter if it's in Green Bay or San Francisco, playoffs, or the NFC Championship game in SF, the Packers have dominated this series. Since 1991, SF is just 18-31-2 on the road when playing a team at or above. 500,which includes just 11-28 if SF is off a win. They are just 5-21-1 if SF played at home in their previous game and their opponent was on the road. And that includes some of SF better years, with a SB in 1994. They just haven't been a good team on the road when playing good competition. They have made a living on the road beating inferior teams. Not much has changed this year, with SF, although competitive, going 0-4 SU on the road. The SF offense has come on as of late, averaging 4.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.9 yps. But their defense, over the last five games, has given some of that back, allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.0 yps against 5.9 yps. In their last three road games, they have allowed 102, 147 and 221 rushing yards. That doesn't bode well against a Green Bay team who is running the ball better than any other team in the league right now, averaging 5.8 ypr against 4.7 ypr over their last five games. The Packers have gone to more of the run to protect Favre, and they are now averaging just 6.2 yps against 6.7 yps over their last five games. They have rushed for at least 190 yards in each of their last three games, and at least 184 yards in six of their ten games this year. The Green Bay defense, like SF, has given some of that back, allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games but the pass defense has played better, allowing just 6.3 yps against 6.8 yps. They allowed TB to rush for 154 yards at 8.6 ypr last week but that was somewhat misleading as two rushes accounted for about 110 yards and they only allowed about 2.0 ypr in TB other 16 rushes. The Pack qualify in a general momentum situation, which is 103-60-4 and if this line would drop to -4 or less, they would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 135-54-7 (7-4 TY). Final numbers actually favor SF but the home/road dichotomy and the situations make up for that. If Green Bay becomes a favorite of four or less, I would make them a best bet. GREEN BAY 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20
MINNESOTA -10.5 Detroit 47.5
Maybe after Minnesota allows at least 28 points in about nine straight games, the linemaker will begin to make their lines fair. Minnesota had a chance last week against an Oakland team who had no identity on offense to really take advantage of the porous Minnesota defense. That didn't work as Oakland rushed for their most yards this year, 191 and gained their second most total yards, 375, and second most points, 28, in a game this year. They better get the job done this week because with games at St. Louis, at home versus Seattle and Kansas City and at Chicago and Arizona, this might be their last chance to win a game. Those other teams all do something well, that could spell trouble for the Vikings. Yes, Chicago actually plays pretty solid defense and Arizona can rush the ball (who can't against this defense) and plays well at home. The other three teams speak for themselves. Minnesota has now allowed at least 20 points in six straight games and at least 26 points in five of six games. That doesn't bode well when you are laying 10.5 points. Can Minnesota score 30+ points? Sure, but they have only scored more than 30 points twice this year. And only two of their six wins have come by more than 11 points this year. Once again, they'll face a team that doesn't do anything special on offense. The Lions have been terrible on offense this year, averaging just 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 4.6 yps against 5.2 yps. But, where they fail, so does Minnesota. The Vikings are allowing 5.7 ypr against 4.8 ypr and 7.0 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games. We've heard all the stories about Minnesota had to play some great backs in Tiki Barber, Ahman Green and Clinton Portis and Tomlinson. They didn't face one last week and still allowed Wheatley and company to rush for 191 yards. They played good teams and that was why they were losing. They haven't played a good team in each of the last two weeks and still lost the games badly. They were undervalued last year because they were turning the ball over so much and were getting a lot of points in games. This year, their defense wasn't playing that well, even in the beginning, but they were getting the turnovers. All of a sudden that has stopped for the last four games and they have lost all of them badly. Will they get the turnovers this week? They could against Detroit, but teams have figured out they can run the ball on this team, and that limits their chances of turning the ball over. Even as hapless as Detroit's offense has been, when comparing their numbers to Minnesota's numbers, they still figure to average about 4.5 ypr and 6.8 yps. Would you want to lay 10.5 points, knowing your opponent is probably going to average those numbers? And, what Oakland didn't have going for them last week, Detroit does this week, and that's a decent defense. Their defense is allowing just 3.3 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.6 yps against 5.5 yps. For Minnesota, the one area that has continued to perform well is the passing game, which is averaging 7.4 yps against 5.3 yps, while the running game has been just above average, gaining 4.4 ypr against 4.2 ypr. Mike Tice has said this week they need to establish the run, which will allow them to pass and keep their defense off the field, where it belongs. But, Detroit is playing good rush defense, and may be able to limit the gains Minnesota can get. Over the last 10 years playing Detroit at home, Minnesota has only won one game by more than 10 points, and that was the 15-1 team in 1998. This isn't a version of that 15-1 team and I don't see them winning this game by more than 10 points with this defense. Detroit qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 293-212-11 and they are a turnover table play as well, which is 769-597-32. Final numbers, before accounting for the situations Detroit qualifies in, suggest Minnesota by 10.5 (all games) and by 8.5 (last five games). I'll always gladly take my chances getting 10+ points, when facing a defense like Minnesota. MINNESOTA 28 DETROIT 27
DALLAS -3 Carolina 32.5
I have no situations on either team in this game and I don't have a strong opinion either. It's very tough to see Dallas, with an offense that has really become somewhat anemic, laying points against a good team like Carolina, who is in just about every game. Having said that, the Dallas offense might play better this week on the carpet, where they can take advantage of their speed. The Cowboys have really only played three good defenses this year and they haven't performed well against them, scoring 0 points at Tampa Bay, 10 points against Buffalo, and 0 points again last week against New England. Carolina is obviously known as a running team but they are averaging just 4.3 ypr against 4.2 ypr for the whole season, and just 4.4 ypr against 4.6 ypr over their last five games. But, they are starting to throw the ball extremely well right now, averaging 6.9 yps against 6.3 yps over their last five games. Dallas has been just average defending the run, allowing 3.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr but excellent defending the pass, allowing just 3.4 yps against 5.1 yps. Until allowing NE to throw for 203 yards last week, Dallas hadn't allowed a team to throw for more than 133 yards in any of their previous six games. And since their first game, they haven't allowed a team to throw for more than 124 yards at home this year. Numbers favor Dallas by four points (all games) and by 5.5 points (last five games), but I am going to lean the other way in this game and take the points in what should be a low scoring game. DALLAS 17 CAROLINA 16
New England -6 HOUSTON 37
No question NE is playing great football right now. They are playing great defense, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl and just 14 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game over their last five games. The offense hasn't been terrific but their passing game has been, averaging 7.2 yps against 5.7 yps over their last five games. That could spell trouble against a Houston defense, which is allowing 4.6 ypr against 3.9 ypr and a whopping 8.2 yps against 7.0 yps over their last five games. The Houston offense has been solid, gaining 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.3 yps over their last five games. While they have played some teams that are better than this Houston team, NE hasn't been blowing teams away on the road. They lost their opener at Buffalo, in a game we can probably just throw out because of the Lawyer Milloy stuff, and then bounced back against Philly, winning 31-10. Since then, they have lost by three at Washington, won in OT at Miami by six, and won in the last seconds at Denver by four, against a Bronco team without Jake Plummer. For Houston, they lost badly early in the year at home to Kansas City by 28, but since then have defeated Jacksonville by four, lost by five against the Jets and defeated Carolina by four. So, they have been competitive at home. Houston qualifies in two similar momentum situations, which are 76-42-2 and 155-105-11 (3-0 TY). NE qualifies in a scheduling situation, which plays against them here. That situation is 97-52-3. Final numbers favor NE by 5.5 (all games) and 3.5 (last five games). I like the home dog to have a chance of staying within a generous amount of points. Houston has rushed for at least 107 yards in each of their four home games this year. NE has allowed at least 97 yards rushing in each road game this year and three of their four 100 yard rushing games allowed have come on the road. NEW ENGLAND 21 HOUSTON 20
DENVER -10.5 Chicago 40.5
Second game of the week that I scratched from the card, although it qualified as a play this week. It's hard to completely trust the numbers with Denver because so many of those games came without Jake Plummer at quarterback. Having said that, the numbers for all games favor Denver by about 14 and for just the last five games, favor them by about five points. The general perception is Chicago is a really bad team and they aren't necessarily a good team, but their defense has played well lately. They are allowing just 3.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 5.2 yps against 5.5 yps. They are also allowing just 17 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game over their last five games. They'll go against a Denver offense, which is gaining 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr but just 4.9 yps against 5.9 yps. But, like I said, it's tough to get a read on those numbers because Plummer has been hurt. Last week with Plummer, they averaged 6.9 yps against a San Diego pass defense that has allowed 6.4 yps over their last five games and 6.6 yps for the season. So, I would say the Denver passing game is back to above average. Throw out the first game, which was a debacle against SF, and the Bears haven't lost a game by more than 15 points this year. And since Chandler became quarterback, they haven't lost by more than seven points and that includes traveling to Seattle as 11 point dogs (lost by seven) and to New Orleans as 6.5 point dogs (lost by seven). The Bears qualify in a contrary situation, which is 293-212-11 and they qualify in another situation, which is 106-52-2 (4-0 TY). I won't play Chicago here because I think it will be tough for them to move the ball on offense against a good Denver defense (Bears average just 3.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps) but they do qualify as a best bet and are the right side. DENVER 21 CHICAGO 17
St. Louis -8 ARIZONA 43
After going against the Rams for four straight games earlier this year and failing to win any of them, I have now gone against them in two of their last three games and won both of them. I'll continue to attack what I think is a slightly overrated team. It's beginning to get harder and harder to justify Arizona as they continue to slide back into the Arizona team we all know and love, but my last defense for them this week is they play better at home. Rams continue to not be able to rush the ball, averaging just 3.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr but they are throwing the ball extremely well, averaging 7.1 yps against 6.3 yps over their last five games. The defense has played respectable during that time, allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.5 ypr and 5.6 yps against 5.6 yps. For Arizona, their saving grace is their rushing game, which is averaging 4.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr. The passing game has gone south, averaging just 5.0 yps against 5.6 yps. On defense, they are allowing just 3.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr but are now allowing 6.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Since Marcel Shipp took over at running back, the team has gained 221 and 161 yards rushing in their last two home games. They lost their first game at home to Seattle, but lost Blake early in that game and turned the ball over six times. But, since then, they have defeated GB (who was banged up) by seven points, lost to Baltimore by eight (although trailed by much more) beat SF by three and Cincinnati by three. In that Baltimore game, they actually gained 320 yards to just a little over 300 for Baltimore but allowed an interception return for a touchdown and a punt return for a touchdown. Only once have the Rams averaged more than 3.1 ypr on the road this year and that was last week with Marshall Faulk, when they averaged 4.5 ypr. The defense is allowing 4.7 ypr on the road this year. The Rams have also had protection problems the last two weeks. That can be excused against a Baltimore defense, where they allowed five sacks, but not against the Bears defense, where they allowed four sacks. The Bears only had 8 sacks coming into that game. Arizona also only has eight sacks on the year so we'll see if playing on the road affects their ability to protect Mark Bulger. Arizona is averaging 4.1 ypr at home this year but has averaged 4.5, 5.0 and 4.4 ypr in their last three home games. They've also allowed only one team (Baltimore) to rush for more than 4.3 ypr and only Seattle and Baltimore to rush for more than 3.9 ypr at home. The Rams have won just one game by more than two points on the road this year. Going back to the 2000 season, the Rams are now just 3-12-1 when facing an opponent on the road who has a win percentage of .500 or below and just 1-10-1 when they have a winning percentage of less than .857. It's very hard to trust them laying points on the road. Arizona qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 39-16-0, which plays on teams who allowed 40 or more points in their last game. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in a contrary situation, which is 273-177-19. That situation is 8-2 this year and the premise of the situation is to play on teams who are not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread. Teams don't just keep on covering and not covering. Vegas wouldn't be quite as bright as it is if that was the case. Arizona also qualifies in two fundamental rushing situations, which are 112-54-6 (5-2 TY) and a situation, which is 521-401-31 (32-21-2 TY) and a subset, which is 240-138-12 (12-7-1 TY). Final numbers suggest Rams by 6.5 (all games) and by five points (last five games) before accounting for the situations Arizona qualifies in. This game also qualifies in two terrific under situations, which are 145-71-2 (6-1 TY) and 299-221-11 (13-5 TY). Arizona has played it close to the vest this year at home and their games have accounted for just 38, 33, 44, 29 and 31 points. Last year, these two combined for 58 points at St. Louis (50 this year at St. Louis) but just 41 points here. And Arizona only had one game last year at home that combined to total more than 43 points. The situations favoring the under are too strong and too hot this year to ignore. ST LOUIS 21 ARIZONA 17
Tennessee -7.5 ATLANTA 44
Here is another team (Tennessee) I have gone against five straight times and only covered one once. I finally got off that ship last week and they didn't cover. I'm getting back on that ship this week and we'll see what happens. It's hard to make a great case for Atlanta, from a fundamental standpoint. After all, Atlanta is allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 8.1 yps against 6.4 yps over their last five games. And now they'll face a Tennessee offense that is averaging just 3.2 ypr against 3.7 ypr but an unbelievable 9.0 yps against 6.5 yps over their last five games. Dan Reeves replaced his entire secondary two weeks ago and it may be paying some dividends. That, or Atlanta has decided to let teams run on them but not throw the ball. Atlanta has allowed the Giants to throw for just 4.2 yps (they average 5.8 yps for the whole season) and NO to throw for just 4.3 yps (they average 5.7 yps for the whole season). Atlanta has allowed those teams to average 6.1 ypr in those two games but I like that philosophy better, especially against a pass happy Tennessee team. While Atlanta has stopped the opposing team's passing game, they haven't thrown the ball any better themselves and will go back to Doug Johnson this week. But, Atlanta is rushing the ball well, averaging 5.9 ypr over their last two games and 5.3 ypr against 4.7 ypr over their last five games. That might fit very well against a Tennessee rush defense, which is allowing 4.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. I know nobody wants a bad team at home against a good team but home teams with a winning percentage of .200 or worse are 56-21-1 when getting more than five points and facing a team with a winning record. There's a little more to that but that is the basic premise. Atlanta is a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32. I've also talked about taking teams who are not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread and that situation is 273-177-19 and 8-2 already this year. Final numbers suggest Tennessee by 4.5 (all games) and by 9.5 (last five games) before accounting for the situations Atlanta qualifies in. I don't think Atlanta can cover this game by just running the ball and they will have to score some to stay in this game. I also like the game to go over the total. Tennessee only scored 10 points last week but had scored at least 30 points in six straight games and at least 27 points in seven straight games prior to last week's game. They've also allowed at least 13 points in every road game this year and at least 17 points in all but one road game. If they get to 27 or 30 and allow their customary 17 points, this game stands a good chance of going over the total. Other than their game at home against TB, Atlanta has scored at least 16 points in every home game and since relying more on the rush the last two weeks, they have scored at least 20 points, both coming on the road. Other than two games this year, their defense has also allowed at least 23 points in every game. This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 35-11-1. Final predicted points suggest somewhere around 49 points (all games) and 54 points (last five games). I like Atlanta and the over. TENNESSEE 32 ATLANTA 29
KANSAS CITY -11.5 Oakland 45.5
I have no situations that apply to either team here and I don't have much of an opinion on this game either. The Kansas City offense has been good, averaging 6.0 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games (7.4 yps against 5.9 yps), while the Oakland defense hasn't been good, allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl (6.2 yps against 5.7 yps) over their last five games. The Oakland offense has been below average, gaining just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl, while the Kansas City defense has also been below average, allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl. I still think it will be tough for Rick Mirer to operate in the tough Kansas City environment. A few years ago, teams playing after they had played TB didn't do too well because of the physical match-up they had the previous week with TB, etc. Maybe we are starting to see something new here. Teams who beat Minnesota are now 0-2-1 this year in their next game. Perhaps teams start feeling good about themselves after having such an explosive offensive outing that they lose track of the fact they may not be quite as good as they looked the previous week. Doug Flutie and San Diego looked great two weeks ago and terrible last week. And, perhaps, their opponents don't take them lightly either, after their impressive showing. Whatever the case, I think Oakland will have all they can handle this week against a Kansas City team that can play a little loser now that they have finally lost. This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 299-221-11 (13-5 TY). KANSAS CITY 27 OAKLAND 14
Cincinnati -3 SAN DIEGO 43
Here is a case of a team looking so good that we all forget they are still an average team. A much improved team and a team finally starting to put it all together, but I'm not ready to make Cincinnati the next contender in the AFC. I took SD two weeks ago against a bad Minnesota team and many people didn't want any part of it. Well, I can't suggest Cincinnati is worse than Minnesota but I like the spot here for SD. SD has still only played three home games this year, losing to Baltimore and Denver and beating the only average team they have played, Minnesota. Cincinnati, meanwhile, over the past six weeks, has played four home games, had a bye and played one road game at Arizona, in which they lost by three points. In their previous three road games, they won at Cleveland by seven points, lost at Oakland by three (we know how good Oakland is or isn't) and lost at Buffalo by six points. Throw out the Kansas City game (in KC), the two Denver games and the Miami game, and SD doesn't look so bad against average competition. They beat Cleveland on the road by six, lost to Oakland by three, lost to Jacksonville by six, lost to Chicago by 13 (on the road) and beat Minnesota by 14. They can certainly be competitive in this game. Doug Flutie isn't going to beat the great defensive teams but he can compete with the Cincinnati's of the world. Cincinnati is allowing 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. While SD isn't throwing the ball well, averaging just 5.0 yps against 6.0 yps, they are running the ball well, averaging 5.3 ypr against 3.9 ypr. Two weeks ago, they averaged 8.0 yps against an equally poor Minnesota pass defense. On offense, Cincinnati still isn't rushing the ball well, for average, gaining just 3.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games, but they are averaging 6.4 yps against 5.8 yps during that same time period. They'll face a SD defense that is allowing 6.4 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. Cincinnati qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 158-87-8 and plays against them here. SD is also a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in our non-covering against covering contrary situation, which is 273-177-19 (8-2 TY). SD also qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 422-295-23 (24-12-1 TY) and 112-54-6 (5-2 TY). Final numbers suggest a two point line (all games) and 2.5 point line (last five games), in favor of Cincinnati. While I don't have a situation on the over in this game, I also like the game to go over the total. SD has allowed at least 20 points in every game this year. Against the two teams SD has faced this year that are allowing more yards per play than their opponents are averaging and more points per game than their opponents are averaging (for the whole season), they have scored 31 points (Oakland) and 42 points (Minnesota). This week they get Cincinnati, who is allowing 22 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game and 5.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Cincinnati, against the same criteria, has averaged 23 points in three games this year. SD's defense, against the same criteria, has allowed an average of 28 points in two games. And, Cincinnati's defense against the same criteria has allowed an average of 22 points in two games. Both teams have below average pass defenses, and while SD doesn't throw the ball that well, their running game is good enough to pose a threat to Cincinnati to have to defend it, which will open up the passing lanes for SD too. Final numbers suggest about 48 points (all games) to 55 points (last five games), giving us good value to the over. SAN DIEGO 31 CINCINNATI 24
MIAMI -6.5 Washington 35
Washington qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 293-212-11 but I have a hard time recommending them here, not knowing if P. Ramsey will be the quarterback. If he isn't, it's going to be awful tough for Washington to move the ball. If he is, it's still going to be tough to move the ball. The Miami offense is below average, gaining just 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl, but they'll face a struggling Washington defense that is allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl. And Washington has been well below average against both, the run and the pass. The Miami defense, of course, is playing well, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl and they'll face a Washington offense that is averaging just 4.2 yppl against 4.6 yppl over their last five games. Final numbers suggest Miami by 9.5 points (all games) and by 9.0 points (last five games). It isn't often I will go against the situations, but I have a hard time recommending Washington here. MIAMI 24 WASHINGTON 14
TAMPA BAY -5.5 NY Giants 37
I don't have enough ammunition to make the Giants a best bet here but I will lean their way, despite the loss of Shockey. The Giants offense is just average, gaining just 5.2 yppl against 5.4 yppl over their last five games. That could get worse because of the loss of Shockey. But, they'll face a TB defense, which is allowing 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl and has been pretty average for a while now. On the other side of the ball, TB throws the ball well, averaging 6.0 yps against 5.5 yps (we'll see how the Keyshawn deactivation effects their passing game) but they'll face the strength of the Giants defense, which is the passing game. Their pass defense is allowing just 4.9 yps against 6.2 yps. Giants qualify as a turnover table play, while TB qualifies in a Monday night situation. Value lies with the Giants as final numbers suggest a 3.5 point line (all games) and a 4.5 point line (last five games). This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 48-23-4. Those final numbers suggest about 37 points (all games) and 33 points (last five games). I'll lean towards the Giants and the under. TAMPA BAY 17 NY GIANTS 14
BEST BETS
YTD 36-25-2 +22.80%
2% BUFFALO +3
2% JACKSONVILLE +4 (Must get at least 4)
2% BALTIMORE -3
2% DETROIT +10.5
2% HOUSTON +6
2% ARIZONA +8
2% ATLANTA +7
2% SAN DIEGO +3
2% STL/ARZ UNDER 43
2% TENN/ATL OVER 44
2% CIN/SD OVER 43
Possible Play:
2% GREEN BAY -4 or less
